Brazil

Jun 2 2026

USTR proposes 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods under Section 301 — hearing July 6, action deadline July 15. The Office of the US Trade Representative determined Brazil's practices "are unreasonable and burden or restrict US commerce." Trade Rep Jamieson Greer said the Trump-directed Section 301 probe targets anti-corruption enforcement, intellectual property, ethanol market access, and illegal deforestation. Public comment runs through July 1; a hearing is set for July 6; USTR faces a July 15 deadline to act. Context: a July 2025 50% tariff was struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026. Greer cited "constructive meetings" with Lula but "substantial differences" remaining. Commercial read: exporters to the US should model a 25% duty scenario and watch the July window. Source: USTR / CNBC.Trade Risk

May 29 2026

Rubio designates Brazil's PCC and Comando Vermelho as Foreign Terrorist Organizations — effective June 5. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the US will list the First Capital Command (PCC) and Red Command (CV) as FTOs, calling them "two of the most violent criminal organizations in Brazil." The move landed roughly 24 hours after presidential hopeful Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's Washington visit. Lula's top foreign-policy adviser Celso Amorim pushed back: "using it as a pretext for intervention is unacceptable." Commercial read: an FTO designation raises material-support legal exposure for any firm whose supply chain, logistics, or partners could intersect these gangs' territories — security and compliance due diligence rises. Source: Reuters / OANN.Political Signal

May 26 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro meets Trump at the White House — rare earths, tariffs, and organized crime on the agenda. Senator and presidential contender Flávio Bolsonaro held a closed Oval Office meeting with President Trump on May 26. Topics confirmed: critical minerals and rare earths, tariffs, and bilateral approach to organized crime. Trump asked about Jair Bolsonaro, sentenced to 27 years for the 2022–23 coup plot. The meeting comes as Flávio is managing a campaign scandal — he requested film financing from a banker jailed on fraud charges. The White House meeting provides political legitimacy at a moment of domestic vulnerability. Commercial read: rare earths and critical minerals on the agenda is a direct signal for the resources sector. The US is actively positioning with the Brazilian right ahead of elections. Watch how the Lula government responds. Source: Reuters / Bloomberg.Political Signal

May 2026

Eurofarma opens its largest-ever industrial complex in Montes Claros (MG) — one of the biggest pharma plants in the Southern Hemisphere. Brazil's largest homegrown drugmaker began operations at the new Montes Claros facility, starting with packaging and expanding into manufacturing; the site bridges Brazil's Southeast and Northeast to improve logistics and export competitiveness. Eurofarma posted ~R$12.5 billion in 2025 net sales, invested ~R$712 million in innovation, and runs a 350+ project pipeline. Commercial read: domestic pharma capacity is scaling for export — a supplier, logistics, and capital-equipment opportunity. Source: Eurofarma / PharmaBoardroom.Market Signal