Live Intelligence · Q2 2026
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Jan 2026Trump reimposed Cuba's state sponsor of terrorism designation on day one. Biden had lifted it in his final days. Trump also reimposed the tourism ban, restricted financial transactions with military-controlled entities, and sanctioned President Díaz-Canel. Hard-line policy restored in full.
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Mar 17, 2026Cuba opens diaspora investment channel. Deputy PM Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga announced Cuba will allow nationals living abroad — including Miami — to invest in and own businesses on the island. Scope extends to "large investments, particularly in infrastructure." Cuba is explicitly seeking "a fluid commercial relationship with US companies."
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Q2 2026Cuba in severe energy crisis. No petroleum shipments arrived for three months. Nationwide blackout forced hospital surgeries to be postponed. The energy crisis is driving Cuba's urgency to attract foreign investment in power grid modernization, tourism, and mining.
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NoteSpecial license channel exists. The US government can grant special licenses allowing Americans to invest in Cuba's private sector. Some Cuban exiles already operate businesses there. This is a narrow but real channel — sanctions-compliant operators should understand the scope.
Three-Power Read
Beijing
China is Cuba's #2 external partner after Venezuela. Huawei and ZTE telecoms infrastructure embedded. Nickel mining interests active. Strategic signals-intelligence monitoring from Cuban territory reported. China benefits from every year the US embargo remains in force.
Brussels
EU-Cuba Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement (2016) active. Meliá hotels and Repsol energy are operating. EU maintains the only significant Western commercial channel on the island — a position US firms cannot access under current sanctions.
Cuba
Díaz-Canel extracting survival resources from China and Russia, European tourism revenue, and Venezuelan energy. Energy crisis is forcing Cuba to open diaspora investment channel — a pragmatic concession, not an ideological shift. No incentive to accommodate US demands without full embargo lift.
Sectors — When Sanctions Lift
Tourism & Hospitality
Energy / Power Grid
Mining
Infrastructure
Primary Risk
Full embargo in force. State sponsor of terrorism designation active. Any US-linked entity engaging without a valid OFAC special license faces sanctions exposure. EU and Chinese firms have a first-mover advantage that will be significant if and when the embargo lifts. Trump escalation risk remains.
Franco Calderón · Latambusiness.org
Is the Window Open
For Your Deal?
Not yet for most operators. But Cuba is signaling and the diaspora channel is real. If you have an OFAC-compliant structure or are watching for the moment sanctions shift, start the conversation now.
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