Live Intelligence · Q2 2026
- May 9, 2026Andean Community gives Ecuador and Colombia 10 days to remove reciprocal tariffs. Ecuador applied 100% tariffs on Colombian exports; Colombia retaliated with 75% tariffs on 191 Ecuadorian products. Andean Community mediating. For operators with cross-border supply chains spanning both markets, review cost structures now. Source: Banca y Negocios.Trade Risk
- Apr 30, 2026Colombia imposes tariffs of up to 75% on 191 Ecuadorian products — a retaliatory measure after Ecuador applied 100% tariffs on Colombian exports. The bilateral trade war is escalating. For operators with cross-border supply chains or distribution strategies spanning both markets, this is a cost-structure event requiring immediate review.Risk Signal
- Mar 13, 2026US-Ecuador Agreement on Reciprocal Trade signed — $10B in EXIM/DFC financing unlocked, critical minerals designated strategic. USTR Ambassador Greer signed in Washington. Agricultural tariff reductions cover tree nuts, fresh fruit, pulses, wheat, wine, and distilled spirits. Ecuador commits to high levels of environmental protection, forest sector governance, and combat of illegal logging. The $10B EXIM/DFC activation is the mechanism — available to US-affiliated operators for energy, infrastructure, and critical minerals projects. Ecuador is the only Andean market with both a bilateral trade instrument and a declared US financing facility active simultaneously.Deploy Signal
- Active$42B in projected FDI from foreign oil companies over five years. Sinopec has signed an oil exploration deal — Noboa government is simultaneously courting US and allied firms. The window to counter Chinese energy positioning is open.OFAC
Sectors — Active Opportunity
Oil & Gas
Energy Infrastructure
Critical Minerals
Agriculture & Shrimp
Free Zone Manufacturing
Logistics
Primary Risk
Noboa's security-first government has significantly reduced cartel violence — but political stability is not fully consolidated. No confirmed US ambassador limits commercial facilitation at the ministerial level. Chinese oil companies (Sinopec, CNPC) have a structural head start in the energy sector that requires deliberate counter-positioning.
Franco Calderón · Latambusiness.org
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